MDB Consensus Inflation Estimates

Estimates are as of 2025-12-12

Last updated:

2025-12-14 with ADB ADO December 2025 data (see Brief for highlights)

2025-10-16 with IMF WEO October 2025 data and ADB ADO September 2025 data (see Brief for highlights)

2025-08-10 with ADB ADO July 2025 data

2025-05-25 to add East Asia, South Asia, and Pacific countries

2025-04-22 with IMF WEO April 2025 data

Consensus Inflation Estimates by Country

A = Actual, F = Forecast, M = Mixed

Country	Region	2023 A	2024 A	2025 F	2026 F
Afghanistan	Central and West Asia	…	…	-4.2%	1.0%
Armenia	Central and West Asia	2.0%	0.4%	3.4%	2.8%
Azerbaijan	Central and West Asia	8.8%	2.2%	5.0%	4.0%
Georgia	Central and West Asia	2.5%	1.1%	4.0%	3.5%
Kazakhstan	Central and West Asia	14.5%	8.7%	11.3%	10.4%
Kyrgyzstan	Central and West Asia	10.8%	5.0%	7.5%	7.5%
Tajikistan	Central and West Asia	3.8%	3.6%	4.2%	4.9%
Turkiye	Central and West Asia	53.9%	58.5%	34.9%	24.7%
Turkmenistan	Central and West Asia	-0.2%	5.1%	4.0%	5.0%
Uzbekistan	Central and West Asia	10.0%	9.5%	8.6%	7.2%
China	East Asia	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.6%
Hong Kong	East Asia	2.1%	1.7%	1.7%	1.9%
Mongolia	East Asia	10.4%	6.2%	8.5%	7.7%
South Korea	East Asia	3.6%	2.3%	2.1%	2.0%
Taiwan	East Asia	2.5%	2.2%	1.7%	1.6%
Bangladesh	South Asia	9.0%	9.7%	10.0%	8.4%
Bhutan	South Asia	4.4%	3.6%	2.8%	3.6%
India	South Asia	5.4%	4.6%	2.7%	4.1%
Maldives	South Asia	2.8%	1.4%	4.2%	3.0%
Nepal	South Asia	7.7%	5.4%	4.1%	4.4%
Pakistan	South Asia	29.2%	23.4%	4.5%	6.0%
Sri Lanka	South Asia	17.4%	1.2%	0.5%	4.5%
Brunei Darussalam	Southeast Asia	0.4%	-0.4%	0.1%	0.6%
Cambodia	Southeast Asia	2.1%	0.9%	1.8%	1.9%
Indonesia	Southeast Asia	3.7%	2.3%	1.8%	2.7%
Lao PDR	Southeast Asia	31.2%	23.2%	8.7%	7.0%
Malaysia	Southeast Asia	2.5%	1.8%	1.6%	2.2%
Myanmar	Southeast Asia	26.5%	27.2%	30.5%	25.5%
Philippines	Southeast Asia	6.0%	3.2%	1.7%	2.8%
Singapore	Southeast Asia	4.8%	2.4%	1.0%	1.3%
Thailand	Southeast Asia	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%	0.6%
Timor-Leste	Southeast Asia	8.4%	2.1%	1.1%	1.9%
Vietnam	Southeast Asia	3.3%	3.7%	3.7%	3.5%
Cook Islands	The Pacific	13.2%	4.6%	2.0%	2.8%
Fiji	The Pacific	2.4%	4.5%	0.3%	1.1%
Kiribati	The Pacific	9.3%	2.5%	7.8%	3.5%
Marshall Islands	The Pacific	7.4%	5.5%	4.5%	4.7%
Micronesia	The Pacific	6.2%	5.4%	4.0%	3.3%
Nauru	The Pacific	5.0%	10.5%	6.3%	4.8%
Niue	The Pacific	5.1%	5.4%	2.3%	3.2%
Palau	The Pacific	12.4%	3.7%	2.2%	2.8%
Papua New Guinea	The Pacific	2.3%	0.6%	4.3%	4.5%
Samoa	The Pacific	12.0%	3.6%	1.9%	3.0%
Solomon Islands	The Pacific	5.1%	4.2%	3.6%	3.1%
Tonga	The Pacific	12.6%	8.0%	3.0%	2.6%
Tuvalu	The Pacific	7.2%	1.2%	2.3%	2.2%
Vanuatu	The Pacific	11.2%	1.2%	1.6%	2.3%

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Notes:

Consensus inflation estimates are the mean averages of i) 1-year period averages based on ii) consumer price indexes (CPI).

Estimates are updated as new multilateral development bank inflation forecasts are published, usually April, July, September, October, and December.

NB: i) Afghanistan: 2023 A and 2024 A withheld due to data discrepancies between ADB and IMF; 2025 F and 2026 F are ADB only; ii) Cook Islands and Niue: ADB only; iii) Sri Lanka: ADB only as IMF withheld forecast due to ongoing debt restructuring discussions; iv) Pakistan: IMF notes that forecasts do not include impact of summer 2025 floods; v) Turkiye: IMF only; vi) Cambodia: underlying ADB data is for the city of Phnom Penh only.

Consensus Inflation Estimates by ADB Regional Cooperation Group

A = Actual, F = Forecast, M = Mixed

Sort Order	ADB Regional Cooperation Group	2023 A	2024 A	2025 F	2026 F
1	Brunei Darussalam-Indonesia-Malaysia-Philippines East ASEAN Growth Area (BIMP-EAGA)	3.2%	1.7%	1.3%	2.1%
2	Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program (CAREC)	9.0%	6.5%	4.9%	5.3%
3	Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS)	10.8%	9.3%	7.5%	6.5%
4	GMS, excluding Myanmar	7.6%	5.7%	2.9%	2.7%
5	Indonesia-Malaysia-Thailand Growth Triangle (IMT-GT)	2.5%	1.5%	1.3%	1.8%
6	South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation (SASEC)	10.5%	7.6%	7.8%	7.6%
7	SASEC, excluding Myanmar	7.8%	4.3%	4.1%	4.7%

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Notes:

Estimates for ADB Regional Cooperation Groups are based on simple average of individual country consensus inflation estimates.

Sources:

ADB. 2025. Asian Development Outlook December 2025. Manila: ADB. © ADB. https://www.adb.org/outlook/editions/december-2025 CC-BY 3.0 IGO.

ADB. 2025. Asian Development Outlook September 2025. Manila: ADB. © ADB. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/1085061/asian-development-outlook-september-2025.pdf CC-BY 3.0 IGO.

ADB. 2025. Asian Development Outlook July 2025. Manila: ADB. © ADB. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/1069836/asian-development-outlook-july-2025.pdf CC-BY 3.0 IGO.

ADB. 2025. Asian Development Outlook April 2025. Manila: ADB. © ADB. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/1044336/asian-development-outlook-april-2025.pdf CC-BY 3.0 IGO.

IMF. 2024. World Economic Outlook database: October 2024. Washington, DC: IMF. © IMF. https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/WEO-Database/2024/October/WEOOct2024all.ashx All rights reserved.

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